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Potential Snow Amounts by 3PM Monday

Weekly Storm Outlook:

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE..GROWING CONCERN FOR HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM, WITH UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE.
My confidence is growing as models have narrowed their spread on how winter storm will impact region . This storm unlike the snow bust of last week is already there, not one we wait on to form and quickly react to its positioning. We have more time to work on the storm as we track it across the southwest, mid-Mississippi valley and eventually just off the New Jersey coast by Monday 11am. Models having much more consistency than “The Bust”. But still I do have uncertainties to be worked out with the one heading our way. Two things the storm has been nudging northward with each run, hence more precip, and taking away the heavy snow threat across SNJ and Delaware. Now philly, the I95 corridor right on the fence from ALL heavy accumulating snow, to snow, mixing with sleet, freezing rain and eventually back to snow. That is how I’m playing it now, wait to see if shift more north would lead to more mixing and lower amounts. Right now, I think the north shift will end, as pressing Strong Arctic high should keep North move at bey, if anything a higher amount seems more likely as of now for Philly. The bulls-eye heavy snow amounts right now are just northwest of blue route and north of pa turnpike where I’m forecasting 8-12 inches. That bulls-eye could cover Philly as well with a slight reduction in mixing with a subtle southern shift. For now 5-10 inches for I95 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER END MARK WITH SIGNIFICANT MIXING.

Snow will arrive later Sunday night, brunt of storm on Monday, any mix will go back to snow during Monday afternoon with strong winds.

 

FEB 4TH -12TH..CLOSE CALLS AS WE WILL BE IN A STORM CYCLE EURO HAS STORM THREAT FEB4TH/GFS SAYS NO..LETS SEE IF GFS IS NOW BECOMING THE MODEL OF CHOICE SINCE IT HAS BEEN UP-GRADED

- John Bolaris

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THE SKY’S THE LIMIT!


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